It’s always amazing in January to sit back and check our previous year predictions with easy criticism and to predict new year facts with a fair dose of optimism. And a bit of humor too.
So here are our quantum 2020 predictions review and our top quantum 2021 predictions. Feel free to comment, we’ll appreciate.
By the way, we wish you a very nice Quantum 2021 New Year!
Our quantum 2020 predictions review
In January 2020, we proposed our Top Ten 2020 quantum predictions. Let’s review them!
- Intel will announce a quantum breakthrough with silicon qubits – Hum, though Intel quantum commitment is actually heavy (just check how many Intel guys you can track in university quantum labs worldwide…) and Horse Ridge cryogenic chip comes to 2nd-Gen, there is no quantum breakthrough still there. 4/10
- TU Delft will be the most exciting quantum university – Rather true. With quantum personalities like Stephanie Wehner, Paul de Wit, and QuTech partnership (Menno Veldhorst), TU Delft is a key player in quantum core technologies and quantum Internet research. 8/10
- A financial company (probably US-based) will announce a breakthrough in fast trading and/or portfolio risk assessment using quantum algorithms – There is no actually breakthrough in this domain but some smart startups in US (Chicago Quantum, Zapata Computing) and in Spain (Multiverse) have collaborated with major banks (Bankia, CaixaBank, BBVA, JPMorgan Chase) to build use cases. 7/10
- At least ten startups will get more than $500M each in funding – Wrong. We have been more than optimistic even though Psiquantum raised big figures. 2/10
- Israël will be the new quantum startup nation with some surprising startups exiting from shadow mode – Not too bad. With a $350M public budget over 6 years and VCs like Entrée Capital, Israël is definitely a key player in quantum. A bunch of amazing quantum startups also emerged like Classiq or Quantum Machines. 7/10
- Startup consolidation phase will begin with first generation companies buying new ones – Not exactly true. We didn’t see major acquisition but corporate venture branches of big names quantum players (IBM, Fujitsu, Bosch, Honeywell, Google, …) have invested noticeably in quantum startups. 5/10
- Quantum business will mainly be driven by military investments in quantum sensing and QKD security – Average true. QKD security momentum in China is huge and very probably linked to military concerns (and funding). Quantum sensing its currently more related to medical and scientific devices. But military quantum lobbying has been dramatically intense in USA. Quantum radar prototypes have been tested in major countries. 6/10
- IBM will announce new quantum volume achievement – True! 10/10
- Google will achieve new quantum supremacy – False! 0/10
2021 Top Quantum Predictions
Here are our Top Ten 2021 quantum predictions. See you in 2022 to check them!
- Intel will announce a quantum breakthrough with silicon qubits (yes, we still strongly believe that!)
- Quantum technologies, especially QKD and quantum sensing, will become a key issue in international relationships, space treaties, export regulations, and USA-China economy and soft-power war.
- There will be a major quantum company IPO (Rigetti?)
- Startup consolidation phase will begin with acquisitions (2020 prediction…)
- QRNGs (Quantum Random Number Generators) will be widely used by several industries (5G, gaming, casinos, finance)
- France will at least introduce a quantum plan and will fund it with actual money (friendly message to all the smart French quantum startups: guys, keep on the good job and hope!)
- Swiss banks will at least understand medium-term impact of quantum computing to their operations and urge to build business cases with the help of Swiss universities (private joke)
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